India Will Be Most-Populous Nation In 2023

In 2023, India is expected to surpass China and become the world's most populous nation, four years ahead of a United Nations estimate.

Global population is expected to reach 8 billion on Nov. 15 and 8.5 billion by 2030, according to the UN. According to World Population Prospects 2022, more than half of the projected growth between now and 2050 will occur in just eight countries: Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.

It is expected that China's population will decline in absolute terms. According to government data, China's population of 1.41 billion may peak as early as 2022, since it grew at its slowest pace since the 1950s. An earlier report projected India surpassing China by 2027.

Lower mortality rates and demographic changes may ensure that central and southern Asia become the world’s most-populous region by 2037.

The world population is expected to grow to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100.

In India, the total fertility rate may decline to 1.29 births per woman by 2100 instead of the UN’s earlier estimate of 1.69 births as per report. Women and men are expected to be equal in numbers by 2050.