Exit Polls Predict : AAP In Punjab And Yogi In UP.

Exit polls broadcast after the final phase of voting Monday predicted the return of the Yogi govt in UP and a victory for the AAP in Punjab.

The polls forecast a dead-heat race in Uttarakhand and Goa, both ruled by the BJP, signalling the possibility of hung Houses in the 2 small states. Pollsters predicted a sweep for the BJP in Manipur.

In UP most pollsters barring two forecast that the ruling BJP may suffer losses but will still cross the half-way mark of 202 comfortably and retain power. The SP-RLD alliance, which waged a spirited campaign, may make major gains as compared to 2017 but is likely to fall well short of the magic figure. The Congress, the polls predicted, would remain in single digits.

In 2017, the BJP won a landslide mandate in UP, winning 312 seats on its own in the 403- member House. With allies Apna Dal (9) and SBSP (4), the tally of the BJP alliance had touched 325 seats in 2017. The SP, which fought in alliance with the Congress, could win only 47 seats last time.

In Punjab, most pollsters gave the AAP numbers much ahead of the ruling Congress and the Akali Dal-BSP combine.

If the exit poll predictions hold true and the AAP manages to win Punjab, the outcome has the potential to trigger a churning in Indian politics, especially in the Opposition space as no other party barring the BJP and the Congress are in power in more than one state now.

The AAP surge in Punjab, if the pollsters are correct, is a major setback for the Congress which had played the Dalit card appointing Charanjit Singh Channi as CM, replacing Amarinder Singh just 6 months ago and projecting him as the CM face. A defeat for the Congress could reignite the factional feud in the state.

The BJP, on the other hand, aligned with former CM Amarinder Singh’s Punjab Lok Congress.

In Uttarakhand, the opinion polls differed sharply. While some gave the ruling BJP an edge, others predicted the Congress would emerge as the single largest party. None of the polls gave either side more than 40 seats. No party has retained power in Uttarakhand since its formation in 2000. If the BJP manages to hold on to power, it will be a record of sorts.

In Goa, pollsters predicted a dead-heat race with none of the polls predicting a comfortable victory for either the ruling BJP or the Congress. Most polls predicted that the AAP could win a couple of seats.

In Manipur, all the polls predicted that the ruling BJP would either emerge as the single largest party or cross the halfway mark. In 2017, the Congress had emerged as the single largest party in the state. Though the Congress had won 28 seats in the 60-member house, the BJP with 21 seats got the support of four MLAs each from the Naga People’s Front and the National People’s Party and one from the Lok Janshakti Party and an independent to reach the magic figure of 31. Most polls predicted that the NPP and NPF could repeat or better their 2017 performance.