Prashant Kishor Predicts Advantage for BJP in 2024 Elections, Doubts Significant Seat Loss

Political strategist Prashant Kishor has predicted a significant advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, he asserted that the BJP would not secure 400 seats.

In an interview with RTV Andhra Pradesh, Kishor suggested that for the BJP to be ousted from power, the party needs to lose 100 Lok Sabha seats in North and West India and gain none in the East and South. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has confidently predicted that the BJP will win over 370 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, and the NDA will clinch over 400 seats. Kishor, however, remarked that such predictions are speculative, stating, "It’s all guesswork and no one knows who will win how many seats." He added, "I don't think the NDA and BJP numbers will decline meaningfully."

Kishor explained that in the East and South regions—comprising Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala—there are about 240 Lok Sabha seats, of which the BJP currently holds fewer than 50. Despite this, the BJP manages to secure around 300 seats due to its dominance in the North and West, where it has won 260-270 seats.

For the BJP to lose its majority, Kishor emphasized, it would need to lose 80-100 seats in the North and West. He argued that the party cannot be ousted unless it faces significant defeats in these regions and fails to make gains in the East and South.

Addressing the possibility of such a loss, Kishor noted that the BJP would only lose its majority if five major parties—the Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar, and the NCP-Shiv Sena-Congress alliance in Maharashtra—achieve a strike rate of over 30 percent.

However, Kishor expressed skepticism about this scenario, stating, "I don't see the BJP losing 100 seats in the North and the West." He added that the BJP's vote share and seat count are rising in the South and East. Even with potential losses in Rajasthan and Maharashtra, he estimated the BJP might face setbacks on 20-30 seats but would likely gain more in the South and East.