US Election Approaches: Will Kamala Harris Make History or Will Trump Win Another Term?

Voters in the United States are set to cast their ballots on November 5th to elect their next president. Originally expected to be a rematch of the 2020 election, the race took a surprising turn in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate.

The big question on everyone’s mind: Will America elect its first female president, or will Donald Trump secure a second term in office?

As election day nears, polls provide a glimpse into how the race is unfolding. Harris has maintained a lead over Trump in national polling averages since she officially entered the race at the end of July. A significant moment in the campaign came on September 10, when the two candidates faced off in a televised debate in Pennsylvania, which drew an audience of over 67 million viewers.

In the week following the debate, many national polls showed that Harris’s performance gave her a slight boost, increasing her lead from 2.5 percentage points to 3.3 points. This gain, however, was more a result of Trump’s numbers dipping than Harris’s rising.

Although national polls offer insights into overall voter preferences, they don’t necessarily predict the final outcome due to the US electoral college system. To win the presidency, a candidate must secure 270 out of 538 electoral votes, with each state contributing a certain number of votes based on its population. Most states reliably vote for the same party every election, so the real contest comes down to just a handful of battleground or swing states.

Who’s Leading in the Swing States?

The race is particularly tight in seven key battleground states, with just a one- or two-point margin separating the candidates. Pennsylvania, which carries the most electoral votes among these states, is especially crucial. Winning Pennsylvania can significantly boost a candidate’s chances of reaching the necessary 270 electoral votes.

When Biden withdrew from the race, he was trailing Trump by nearly five points in these swing states. Since Harris became the Democratic nominee, she has closed that gap, and in some places, taken the lead. Polling averages show that Harris has held narrow leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin since early August. These states had been Democratic strongholds until Trump flipped them in 2016. Biden managed to win them back in 2020, and if Harris can maintain her lead, it could be enough to carry her to victory.

The Polling Challenge: Can We Trust the Numbers?

Polling data for swing states is harder to come by than national numbers, and every poll has a margin of error that can make a small lead appear larger or smaller. Nevertheless, trends since Harris’s entry into the race highlight where she seems to be gaining ground.

The averages used in polling trackers, such as those compiled by 538, are based on data from multiple polls conducted by various polling firms. Only reputable pollsters that meet certain standards for transparency and methodology are included. However, as past elections have shown, predicting outcomes is far from foolproof.

Pollsters famously underestimated Trump’s support in both 2016 and 2020, and they are working to correct those errors this time around. Still, predicting voter turnout and adjusting for the makeup of the electorate is a challenging task.

With the race so close in key swing states, this year’s election will be difficult to call until the final votes are counted.