Betting Markets Signal Rising Odds for Trump Victory as Election Nears

With less than three weeks until the U.S. presidential election, polling data reveals a tight contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. However, prediction markets tell a different story, with Trump's chances of victory rising sharply across several platforms.

Election Betting Odds, which aggregates data from major markets, currently shows Trump with a 57% chance of winning—his highest margin since July—up from 48% just weeks ago. Similar trends are reflected on other betting platforms, with Betfair, Kalshi, and Smarkets all placing Trump's odds at around 58%.

The most significant shift has occurred on the betting platform Polymarket, where Trump now holds a 60% chance of victory compared to Harris’s 40%. This change has raised eyebrows, as four accounts reportedly placed a total of $30 million in bets on Trump, fueling speculation about possible market manipulation. According to Reuters, these bets have led to widespread speculation about whether prominent individuals or groups are influencing the odds.

Meanwhile, PredictIt shows a narrower race, with Trump’s chances at 54%, marking the first time since July that Harris has dropped below 50% on the platform.

The Battle for Swing States Intensifies

Key battleground states, particularly Pennsylvania, remain critical for both candidates. With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is widely regarded as the pivotal state in determining the election outcome. Both candidates are investing heavily in TV and radio ads, with spending expected to exceed $138 million from late September through Election Day.

Political analysts, including FiveThirtyEight, attribute the focus on Pennsylvania to anti-Trump sentiments, broader acceptance of Democratic policies, and the state’s growing non-white population. Asian, Black, and Hispanic voters—who historically lean Democratic—are seen as crucial demographics in deciding the state.

As the election enters its final stretch, former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama are set to join Harris on the campaign trail. Barack Obama will appear with Harris in Georgia on October 24, while Michelle Obama will make her first appearance in battleground states like Michigan alongside the vice president and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, on October 26. These high-profile endorsements underscore the significance of securing the swing states in the final push before Election Day.

As prediction markets and campaign activity heat up, the final outcome remains uncertain, with both sides preparing for a fierce battle until the last vote is cast.