Kamala Harris May Have Missed a Key Chance, Says Nate Silver

Election guru Nate Silver thinks Vice President Kamala Harris could’ve fumbled an important move that might affect her future presidential bid. In his "Silver Bulletin" newsletter, Silver didn't hold back, criticizing Harris for choosing Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. According to him, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro would’ve been a smarter pick, especially with swing states like Pennsylvania being so crucial.

Silver said Harris “blew a golden opportunity” by picking Walz instead of Shapiro. Shapiro, who's pretty popular in Pennsylvania, could’ve helped Harris win over more moderate voters—despite a little backlash from some on the far left because of his pro-Israel stance. But, as Silver pointed out, that bit of backlash from progressives might’ve actually worked in her favor by showing she’s not too far left herself.

Polls are already a bit of a headache for Harris. A New York Times/Siena College survey showed 47% of likely voters think she’s too liberal, a perception probably rooted in her 2020 campaign. Silver added that Harris is a more capable politician than she showed back in 2019, but unfortunately, her campaign was run by people who acted like Elizabeth Warren was some sort of conservative.

Another issue? Harris isn’t doing so well with certain voter groups—white voters without college degrees, rural voters, and older folks. These groups are pretty important in states like Pennsylvania. Silver’s take: Harris should be hustling as if she’s two points behind because, if the poll’s accurate, she might actually be.

With Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes in play, Harris’ decision on her running mate could end up being more important than she thought. Silver warns that it might make or break her as the race heats up.