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Kerala Exit Poll Results 2026: Neck-and-Neck Race Raises Hung Assembly Possibility
The 2026 Kerala Assembly elections appear to be heading toward a closely fought finish, with exit polls indicating a tight contest between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF). Voting for all 140 seats was conducted in a single phase on April 9, recording a high voter turnout of 78.13%, one of the highest in the state’s history.
According to Zeenia AI exit poll projections, the Congress-led UDF is expected to win between 63 and 74 seats with a vote share of around 41–43%. The CPI(M)-led LDF is projected to secure between 58 and 70 seats with approximately 40–42% vote share. Meanwhile, the BJP-led NDA is likely to win 2–5 seats with 12–15% vote share.
These projections suggest no clear majority for any alliance, raising the possibility of a hung assembly. Despite the tight contest, incumbent Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan remains the most preferred leader for the top post, indicating sustained personal popularity.
The high turnout has fueled speculation that anti-incumbency may be at play, with voters possibly seeking change after two consecutive terms of LDF rule. However, Kerala’s political history shows a pattern of alternating governments, which was broken in 2021 when the LDF retained power with a strong mandate.
In the previous election, exit polls underestimated the LDF’s performance, which eventually won 99 seats. This has led to cautious interpretation of current projections.
With both alliances nearly evenly matched, the final results on May 4 will be crucial in determining whether Kerala continues under Left rule or returns to Congress-led governance.
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